India Largely Unaffected by Venezuela Crisis, According to GTRI
Venezuela Crisis Unlikely to Impact India’s Economy or Energy Security: GTRI: The ongoing crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to have any significant economic or energy impact on India, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank noted that trade ties between India and Venezuela have already weakened substantially due to long-standing US sanctions, limiting any further fallout from recent developments, including reported US military action and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
GTRI explained that India’s exposure to Venezuela has reduced sharply since 2019, when US sanctions forced New Delhi to cut oil imports and halt business activities to avoid secondary sanctions. As a result, bilateral trade between the two countries has steadily declined over the years.
According to GTRI data, India imported goods worth only US$364.5 million from Venezuela in 2024–25. Of this, crude oil accounted for US$255.3 million, marking a steep decline of 81.3% from crude oil imports worth US$1.4 billion in 2023–24. India’s exports to Venezuela were also limited, totaling US$95.3 million, with pharmaceuticals forming the largest share at US$41.4 million.
No Major Impact on India from Venezuela Crisis, Experts Say
Given the low trade volume, existing sanctions, and the geographical distance between the two nations, GTRI emphasized that current events in Venezuela will not pose any meaningful risk to India’s economy or energy security.
The think tank also highlighted a broader global trend, warning that conflicts over raw materials and energy resources are likely to intensify in the future. In this context, GTRI advised India to act cautiously, safeguard its strategic autonomy, and avoid agreements that could compromise its sovereignty or long-term national interests. Ensuring access to critical raw materials and energy without geopolitical pressure should remain a key priority, it said.
On the geopolitical front, GTRI argued that the primary motivation behind US action in Venezuela is access to its vast crude oil reserves. Venezuela holds around 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States. The report noted that while the US has signed energy trade agreements with allies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, it lacks sufficient crude oil and refining capacity to meet global commitments. In this context, Venezuela’s oil resources become strategically crucial, making unfettered access to its crude a central objective of US policy, according to GTRI.
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